Tag Archives: Elections
Posted on 28 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
Arnab Goswami’s interview with Rahul Gandhi was a lesson for the interviewer. There are advantages in letting the guest speak. By speaking the guest may even expose his own inadequacies.
After watching the interview and reading its transcript, the question that crossed my mind was “ What has Rahul Gandhi to offer to this country?” or “Is he too confused to get into the specifics and therefore goes into the generalities. “
I deal with some of the comments made in the interview.
Why is there no Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress.
The answer was clearly unconvincing. We all know that the MPs of the ruling party alone elect a leader, who is the Prime Minister. We equally know that projecting shadow Prime Ministers is neither unconstitutional nor extra-constitutional. It happens all over the world.
On changing the system and empowerment of people
We are a parliamentary democracy. That is the system best suited for India. Which is the alternative system that Rahul Gandhi has in mind. He says he believes in democracy, in opening up the system, in RTI and giving power to the people. These are his differences with Narendra Modi. I doubt very much if these are seriously areas of difference. Everybody in Indian politics has to believe in democracy, openness and in empowering the people. Why should he give himself a self-certification that he believes in RTI and empowerment. The fact that candidates are decided by a few people may be happening in the Congress Party. In the BJP the block units and district units recommend candidates to the State units. The State Units bring them to the Central Election Committee. It is only after extensive consultation that the candidates are decided. Even for the Prime Ministerial candidate we have gone through an informal process of galaxy of leaders being presented before the party and the people and the most suitable one is finally declared. The de facto Prime Ministerial candidate of the Congress Party is decided on the basis of the family he belongs to. If Rahul Gandhi was a member of any other political party he would still be struggling to become a party office bearer. He needs to speak about the Congress Party needing a change and not the whole system.
On making India a manufacturing hub and its comparison with China
What has the UPA done in the last 10 years in this regard. China’s core competence is low cost manufacturing. Consumers prefer to buy goods which are cheaper. To make the manufacturing sector in India competitive, the manufacturing sector needed to be incentivized in terms of a modest interest rate regime, a world class infrastructure, competitive cost of utilities particularly power, trade facilitation, a globally competitive taxation regime, quick decision making and labour regime flexibility. Even though the last of these is politically more challenging, has the UPA government even moved an inch with regard to the other reforms required. The answer is a clear ‘No’.
Comparison between 1984 riots and the 2002 riots in Gujarat
In 1984 a slogan “Khoon ka Badla Khoon” started in the afternoon of 31st October 1984 at the AIIMS where Mrs.Gandhi’s body lay. Congress Leaders were seen leading the mobs. Sikhs were massacred at thousands of places. No where did the police fire a single bullet to disperse mobs. Cases were not investigated. A Commission of Inquiry was constituted which came with a sham report. The Judge heading the Commission was subsequently made a Congress Party’s Member of the Rajya Sabha. Justice evades the victims even now.
In Gujarat thousands of people were arrested. The badly over-powered police fired at several places. Almost 300 rioters were killed in police firing. Thousands of prosecutions were filed. Hundreds of people have been sentenced. The Chief Minister of the State Government personally went through several inquiries including the Supreme Court constituted SIT and no evidence was found against him.
Where did Rahul Gandhi get this idea that in 1984 there was no participation of the State?
On Corruption
The Congress Party has tied up with a convicted leader in Bihar. Without Lalu Prasad Yadav there is no RJD. Rahul Gandhi has looked the other way when it comes to allegations against Chief Minister of Himachal Pradesh Shri Vir Bhadra Singh. He pays lip sympathy to probity when former CM of Maharashtra Ashok Chavan is bailed out. He chooses to keep quiet on the 2G spectrum allocation and the coal blocks allocation. He believes that some legislations will resolve the menace of corruption.
The most startling statement in the interview
“I am absolutely against the concept of dynasty, anybody who knows me knows that and understands that”- Rahul Gandhi says in the interview. Surely Mr. Gandhi you don’t expect India to believe you on that.
Posted on 27 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The 2014 General Elections are about three months away. The election will be spread over several phases. The current expectation is that with the election notification the campaign would pick up towards the end of March and would continue through April and May 2014. Curiously the Congress Party’s poll advertisements in print, on TV and outdoor have started appearing from January onwards. Election advertising is a costly affair. Besides the normal cost of advertising, several mediums place an election premium on the rates of advertisements. The rates therefore multiply manifolds. The normal practice has been that with the filing of nomination papers, advertisement starts and picks up during the two weeks permitted for campaigning.
Obviously, the Congress Party has earmarked a huge budget for advertising, if advertising is spread over four months. Besides the volume of proposed advertising, the content of the message is curious. Ostensibly, the Party has decided not to have a Prime Ministerial candidate. Effectively, the campaign is centered around one person, who is the Congress Party’s ‘candidate in purdah’. In the campaign that has appeared so far, there is no mention of the present Prime Minister. There is no mention of the performance of the UPA government. It has not even a mention of the Congress Party President. The entire campaign is centered around Rahul Gandhi. However, Rahul Gandhi indeed is a non candidate for Prime Ministership (since the party has no official candidate). Why is it that the campaign is centered around him?
The answer to this is apparent. The Congress does not want to admit that it is officially projecting Rahul Gandhi as Prime Ministerial candidate. An adverse result may make him accountable. It is therefore attempting an alternative strategy of having a de facto candidate rather than a de jure candidate. A positive result will be credited to Rahul Gandhi and a negative result will be debited to Congress Party.
The Party had a few days ago denied that it has earmarked a huge sum of money for image management of Rahul Gandhi. It now appears that the denial was a phony one. Can an image be built up merely by advertising which is not commensurate with the performance of the candidate sought to be projected? There are leaders who appear good only when the going is good. In an adverse situation they collapse like a house of cards. Advertising can market a marketable product, not otherwise.
Posted on 25 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The right to peacefully protest ispart of legitimate political activity. Protest is a form of expression. Undoubtedly every citizen has a right to dissent, protest being a form of dissent.
Is this right to be denied to the Head of an elected government? This is a question that the Chief Minister of Delhi has asked. There is a responsibility on an elected Government and its Head to carry on the governance of the State in accordance with the Constitution. If we examine the details of what the AAP government in Delhi did, the answer to the question will be as self-evident. The Ministers abandoned the Sachivalya. They took the police by surprise and engineered a dharna at a place where it was prohibited. They broke the law. They sent messages to their supporters to assemble in large numbers. Their supporters tried to break the police barricade. The Head of the Government delivered a speech advocating anarchy as a form of government. He appealed to policemen to go on leave, discard their uniform and join the protest. He threatened to obstruct the Republic Day parade by marching lakhs of his supporters on to the Rajpath. If the police in Delhi had responded to his call and abandoned its duty coupled with an invasion of his supporters during the Republic Day parade at the Rajpath, could it be said that the governance is being carried on in accordance with the Constituition. The answer to this question is a definitive ‘No’.
There is a difference between sitting on a fast at Rajghat and giving a call to policemen to abandon their duty and obstructing the Republic Day parade. I am sure Shri Arvind Kejriwal realizes this.
Posted on 24 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
Two Different Agencies have conducted opinion polls in relation to the 2014 General Elections. I am not a great believer in the accuracy of the seat projections, particularly, if the same is conducted 3-4 months before the elections. However, since the agencies which have conducted the polls have a certain level of credibility, it can only be assumed that at this stage they are trying to catch the trend of the current level of the public opinion.
The polls indicate that the BJP is the front-runner. The highest that the BJP has ever had in the Lok Sabha elections is 183. The current indications show that the Party may surpass this figure on its own strength. Its current allies particularly the Shiv Sena and the Akali Dal also seem to be doing well. The Congress Party appears to be nose-diving to its lowest ever tally. Its tally in 2014 may actually be in two digits. There will be a significant difference between the front-runner and the Party coming second.
There will be about 10 political Parties whose tally would be between 5 to 25 seats. The possibility of all these parties joining hands is impossible. The AIADMK and the DMK cannot be on the same side. The Trinamul Congress and the Left cannot be on the same side. The BSP and the Samajwadi Party cannot be together. Besides the BJP and the NDA Partners, some parties which occupy the non-BJP and the non-Left space in their States appear to be getting a significant tally. The AIADMK is poised to get a number of seats. The TDP is re-emerging and consolidating its vote-bank. The BJD is substantially holding on. The TMC is improving its current tally. The euphoria over the YSR Congress has declined but it is still picking up some seats in the Seemandhra region.
The JDU which recently positioned itself as an anti-BJP Party after a 17 year alliance with the BJP appears to be on the decline. The Lok Sabha defeat may even make the Bihar Government shaky. The UPA allies such as the National Conference and the NCP are conceding space in their states to their Opponents.
There is a significant increase in the BJP vote in TamilNadu and Odisha. The Party’s vote in Assam is reasonably intact. The Party appears to be going back in to double digits in States like Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. In the States of North and Central and West India, the strike rate of BJP has significantly increased. The most significant factor in these opinion polls has been that Narendra Modi’s acceptability as Prime Ministerial candidate is about 15 to 20 % higher than the BJP vote in each state. His ability to pull the Party up in strong areas and contribute to its vote percentage in the non-strong areas is evident. How else can we justify the projected 17% vote share in Tamil Nadu and 25% in Odisha.
Who then forms the Government? Is there any other contender other than the BJP and the NDA?
The possibility of smaller Parties cobbling up a group can never provide a stable Government. In any case, their numbers don’t add up. The Congress reduced to two digits can at best be the tail of any other alternative alliance. It cannot be the nucleus of the alliance. A logical conclusion is that a stable Government can only be the BJP led Government and the NDA. In terms of these indications, it should lead to a Government of greater NDA which Atalji had formed. A number of Parties who constituted the greater NDA are poised to do well. The Greater NDA should in addition to the Existing NDA parties comprise of regional Parties which occupy the Non-Congress space in their States. Such a formation truly represents India’s federal politics.
In the run-up to the Elections, decisive leadership, revival of the economy, and removal of corruption appear to be the key issues. These opinion polls have indicated that a stable Government will also be the key issue weighing on the minds of the people. Who else except the BJP and the greater NDA can provide a stable Government?
Posted on 23 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
After displaying a lack of will to fight in an adverse political scenario, two prominent UPA Ministers have finally spoken out. P. Chidambaram is in Davos to attend the World Economic Forum. He was expected to market the Indian economy when the political and trade leaders of various countries’ meet. Instead he has chosen to speak on BJP and Modi. He questions the BJP’s ability to administer the National economy. The audience still had fair memories of management of India’s economy between 1998 and 2004. Not many critical mentions are there for that period. Coincidentally, on the day that he chose to speak about the BJP and Narendra Modi at Davos, Moody’s has come out with its India report which is highlighted in the media. Its reporting indicates that the Industry is today waiting for a political change led by Narendra Modi for a major turn-around to take place.
Kapil Sibal in his customary style has chosen to talk down on the Opposition. His blog refers to Narendra Modi as a ‘salesman’ and Arvind Kejriwal as a ‘showman’. He and the Finance Minister have not only overlooked the fact that Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Goa are today regarded as one of the better administered States where the GDP growth is much higher than the national average though three of them have earlier been in the Bimaru category. The agricultural growth in States like M.P. and Gujarat is in double figures which has brought prosperity to the people.
But Kapil Sibal’s talk of ‘salesman’ is different. “Why is Modi quiet on BS Yeddyurappa’s entrance into BJP” he asks. He then refers to some unproven charges against Ministers being made in other states administered by the BJP.
The moment the charge-sheet was filed against BS Yeddyurappa, the party asked him to resign. This caused a split in its Karnataka unit and eventually cost it the State Government. Today he has unconditionally joined the party. A few charges against him have been quashed by the High Court and in the balance the trial is not proceeding. The party has not offered him any position but he has unconditionally offered to work for the BJP.
Contrast this with what Kapil Sibal’s own party has been doing. It has chosen to enter into an alliance with a convicted Lalu Prasad Yadav. It has decided to protect its former Chief Minister Ashok Chavan from prosecution by the Governor refusing to grant sanction. His government has been involved in the largest ever corruption cases whether they relate to the 2G spectrum allocation or the coal block allocation. The power sector in India is suffering because mining in a large number of coal blocks is paralysed today. His party leadership is unable to take action against the Himachal Pradesh CM where unlawful gratification through cheques stands established. I am certain that Kapil is not unaware of the business transactions of sons and son-in-laws of his Leaders. His party has given a Government to this country which is perceived as the most corrupt government in history. The enthusiasm of investors in the Indian economy has disappeared. A reverse flight of capital has increased. Inflation and corruption have caused a rout of his party in the recent assembly elections. Leadership of both the party and the Government is perceived to be non-inspirational. His Finance Minister yesterday admitted that his party goes into the election as an under-dog. The Congress may end up getting its lowest figure in the history of Indian parliamentary elections.
The party may choose to decry its opponents as salesmen and showmen. Regrettably, the Congress Party has nothing to sell and certainly nothing to show to the electorate of this country.
Posted on 22 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The past few days have presented an insight about the emerging political scenario of the country. For us in the BJP the prospects appear to be encouraging.
The Congress Party has dominated the politics of post-Independence India. In the last few years the performance of the ruling UPA alliance has been extremely shaky and non-inspirational. All polls appear to be indicating that the Popularity of its leaders lags way behind Narendra Modi in the run up to the 2014 General elections. The Congress is likely to lose its strength in most States. There is hardly a State where it is likely to cross the 2009 figure. As the election draws nearer the front runner’s advantage in favour of the BJP would be further consolidated. Additionally, areas which have not been strong-holds of the BJP are showing a sizeable surge in the BJP vote. States like Tamil Nadu, Odisha, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh where the Party strength has been limited, are showing a significant increase in the BJP vote as per the current opinion polls. Once the election becomes quasi-presidential the surge for making Narendra Modi as Prime Minister will further push up the vote share further.
Traditional critics of the BJP had earlier rallied behind the Congress Party. They seem to have now lost hope in it as an instrument that could stop the BJP or Modi. For a brief while they assumed that the BJP surge would be obstructed by the AAP. The Aam Aadmi Party has lent credence to the old saying that a week is too long in politics. It has exhibited unacceptable and irresponsible behavior. Non-transfer of an SHO could lead this party to obstruct the Republic Day celebrations. The Congress Party was all at sea as to how to deal with the AAP. It was willing to criticize but unwilling to strike. Eventually, it offered a weak lifeline which the AAP accepted. AAP’s irresponsible behavior and Congress Party’s capitulation will further emphasize the need for a Party which can provide a stable Government.
Current trends indicate that in the next Lok Sabha there will be only one party which will be comfortably in three figures. The gap between the front runner and the next party will be significant. All others will have handful of seats. Who then forms the Government? This is a question whose answer is likely to play a significant role in determining voters’ choice. Can India afford a government whose nucleus is extremely small and which comprises of innumerable disparate groups? The answer will lead to the irresistible conclusion that India needs responsible governance, political stability and a regenerated economic growth. It needs to revive the investment cycle. All these considerations are bound to give the front runner an added advantage. A Failed Congress, an anarchic AAP, a non-existent Third front will all contribute to the BJP and Modi surge.
Posted on 21 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The past week has been a learning experience. I followed very closely the vision of India espoused by three different leaders.
Rahul Gandhi’s address to the AICC was intended to boost the morale of his party cadres. They appear to be directionless. The decision not to have a prime ministerial candidate in the present context has put them to a psychological disadvantage. His address was aggressive but without specifics.
Narendra Modi addressing the National Council of the BJP was at his eloquent best. Political positioning apart, he used the occasion to lay down a positive vision of India. He raised the level of debate. His address was prime ministerial. Emphasizing the importance of federalism, his address unfolded his vision of modern and strong India. From agricultural sector to education and health he was full of positive ideas. Every State must have institutions of excellence such as IIT, IIM and AIIMS. No home in India should be without basic amenities. The elevation of the Golden Quadrilateral to a Diamond Quadrilateral comprising of highways, industrial corridors and bullet trains with 100 smart cities can change the face of India. The first right to resources belongs to the poor and the deprived. This address is an important landmark for the BJP’s and Narendra Modi’s campaign for 2014.
The third is the politics of AAP. The party was born as a reaction against conventional politics. It promised alternative politics. It is now clear that the alternative politics is anarchy. This has been admitted by the leader of the AAP. The demagogue is unambiguous. In the Lokpal movement, it was argued that the CBI as police of the Central Government cannot be under the control of the Central Government. The same people now argue that the State police must be under the elected representatives of Delhi. Needless to say that the utterances of its leaders lack in civility. The Party has displayed scant regard for the Rule of Law (in Malviya Nagar), political adventurism, extreme arrogance, lack of civility in public discourse and the least concern for established institutions. It appeals to the policemen to take off their uniforms and participate in the agitation. Two decades ago a fundamentalist group gave a call for boycotting of the Republic Day. Today a party which aspires to become a national party defacto threatens to disturb the Republic Day. Its conduct is a challenge to constitutionalism. Its members comprise of supporters of the separatists in Jammu & Kashmir and the Maoists in Chhatisgarh.
Last year when I heard a phrase ‘Federation of Anarchists’ used in the Rajya Sabha, I doubted very much if anarchists who are not bound by any existing regulations and are highly individualistic can ever have a federation. I have now discovered the answer. There is on display a ‘Federation of Anarchists’ on the streets of Delhi. Anarchy cannot be Alternate Politics.
Posted on 19 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The Chief Minister of Delhi along with his Party members has decided to sit in protest outside the Home Minister’s residence. They are demanding the suspension of three policemen who according to them did not perform their duty. It is obvious that the AAP is more comfortable doing a dharna than in the Sachivalaya. The past three weeks have shown that in the Sachivalya the party gets into a self-destructive mode.
Its members across the country speak contrarian language. There is no discipline in the organization. The party comprises of the ideologists, the activists, the self-opinionated and the self-righteous. Some of the supporters have joined the party or voted for it with a sense of idealism. Forming a party and running a government is very different from leading an agitation. The Party’s Law Minister in Delhi has created a serious problem with African nationals staying in Delhi. His approach appears to be a racist one. The Party within days has become victim of its own unconventional style. Mobs can’t take decisions. They can at best be populist. The Party initially used the Government formation in Delhi in order to create an enthusiasm amongst its supporters across the county. Today the party‘s performance in Government is becoming embarrassing by the day. Is the planned dharna for one day a ploy to fracture its non transparent arrangement with the Congress? Is the AAP looking for a way out of the Government and get back to the streets? Or is it exploiting the non-preparedness of the Congress and the Home Minister yielding to the pressures of the AAP?
Posted on 18 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The UPA has been in power since 10 years. It inherited a robust economy. NDA did well in its 6 years rule. It overcame the East Asian crisis and one of the worst ever drought. It left behind an 8.5 percent GDP growth.
The last one decade has been a wasted opportunity. The economy grew in the first few years of the UPA on account of the impetus of past policies . Thereafter, a policy paralysis has struck us. Global investors are withdrawing as they lost faith in the Indian economy. ‘I’ in the BRICS may be knocked off. A declining pattern of investment and a reverse flight of the domestic investment out of the country can be seen. Inflation has been unsustainably high in the economy. The food inflation has been a record high. The GDP growth has slumped below 5 percent The manufacturing sector is slowing down. Joblessness is increasing. The poverty alleviation has slowed down. The farm sector has been plagued by a large number of suicides and increased indebtedness. There is slow down in infrastructure development. The power sector reforms brought in by NDA have been plagued by coal block allocation policy.
How did this happen ? The leadership of the Prime Minister was non-inspirational. He commanded no authority. He did not have the last word to overrule others. Rupees seven lakh crores worth of projects have been blocked by various objections. The National Advisory Council was an extra constitutional structure which could overrule the government. Instead of boosting the economy its poverty alleviation schemes were aimed at votebanks. Neither the economy gained nor did the voters benefitted.
The 2G spectrum allocation sent negative signals. It was a corrupt allotment. The court struck it down and criminal law consequences followed. The investments were confiscated. The coal block allocation have been cancelled. The country with a surplus of coal has now to import coal. The power production in India is suffering. The corruption of the Congress has cost us dearly. Yesterday it was said that the Opposition Parties are populist; they can promise to a comb to a bald man. Another one promises a hair-cut to the bald. But the Congress is a party which can charge a kick back both for the hair cut and for the comb.
The taxation policy has to be simplified and rationalized. Sense of economic well-being cannot be built up through an environment of political confrontation. The Congress did that by misuse of investigative agencies.
The Road Ahead
The first right of natural resources cannot be on basis of religion. It must belong to the poor. Geographically the tribals of Central India and the North East must get the first right . India needs growth. All poverty alleviation schemes must be linked to asset creation. Top priority will have to be given to housing, water, power and quality of life. Job creation is the key. Infrastructure such as highways, transportation, ports, townships have to be expedited. Power production has to pick up. India needs manufacturing sector reforms. Tourism potential of the country must be realized. Inter-linking of rivers must be attempted wherever possible. Rationalisation of taxes and increased expenditure on education and health care are the key. The Minimum Income Support to the farming community has to be assured.
The Congress model is to distribute revenue to the poor. At yesterday’s AICC no such suggestion were visible on how to increase growth. If there is no growth there is less revenue, lesser welfare schemes and eventually no votes. The BJP is committed to increase the investments to realize the growth potential of India. . But growth must be accompanied with a social conscience. The expenditure must prioritise the concern for the poor.
Posted on 17 January, 2014, No Comments Comments admin
The Congress Party has decided not to have a Prime Ministerial candidate. Instead their campaign will be led by Shri Rahul Gandhi. The diminishing returns of a dynasty controlling a party are now visible. In 25 years, a Gandhi has not been the Prime Minister of this country. India, indeed, is changing. The Gandhis can control a party but not the nation. It was nervousness in 2004 that kept the Dynasty away. It is the prospect of defeat staring in the face, which is responsible for the reluctance to announce Rahul Gandhi as the Prime Ministerial candidate in 2014.
This was never the original intention. In December, 2013 Smt. Sonia Gandhi had declared that the Prime Ministerial candidate would be announced at an appropriate time. In his recent press conference, the Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh gave testimonials to Shri Rahul Gandhi as a Prime Minister. Why did the Party develop cold feet then? The Congress is losing the will to fight an adversity. This was first visible in the Delhi assembly elections. One poorly attended meeting of Shri Rahul Gandhi and no national leader came to address a meeting in Delhi thereafter. The nervousness is palpable now. Why puncture your only card in an adverse political environment. There is no fire in the belly left to fight adversity. You can duck a comparison with Narendra Modi particularly when opinion polls indicate a large difference in the personal ratings of the two. May be it is a belated realization of reality on part of the Congress. If there is no prospect of forming a government, why announce Shri Rahul Gandhi as a Prime Ministerial candidate!
The Prime Minister has put on a brave front. He proclaimed that victory in 2014 will be Rahul Gandhi’s. Will the defeat also be debited to his account? I doubt. The Congress Party functions on the premise that the Gandhis never make a mistake. They never fail. It is the Party that fails. It is the advisors who wrongly advise them. There is no accountability of the Gandhis in the Party. After all they are the Party.